After a long winter, baseball is back. And with it MLB betting. Follow our MLB odds to find out what’s in store for your favorite teams during the 2022 season.
The lockout briefly spooked us, but the season will begin on April 7 and there will be 2,430 games to bet on in six months.
How to bet on baseball in 2022
Unlike soccer and basketball, where most betting is based on point spread, baseball is a moneyline sport. Prop bets or run line bets are available, but they are not as popular. This means that bettors only have to predict who will win the game, not who will beat the opponent.
If players just like to predict which team will win each game, they can check out our daily MLB picks throughout the season for prop bets.
When you place moneyline bets, you have the option of betting on the favorite – the team that is expected to win – or on the opponent. Keep in mind that if you bet on the favorite, you will gain less money than you bet in the event of a win, while a win on an underdog bet will (usually) return more than you bet. Read more about how to read moneyline odds here.
And although it’s rare, you do have the option of betting on the “spread”, although in baseball betting this is referred to as the run line and in almost every case is -1.5 runs for the favorite, with various odds.
You also have the option of betting on the over/under (or total), which, as in other sports, is a bet on the number of runs that will be scored in a game.
Another unique aspect of baseball betting is the long, long schedule. With so many games played each day (2,430 regular season games in the regular season), players have endless opportunities to maximize their edge.
Here are 10 simple tips to help you profit this MLB season.
Baseball betting tips
Avoid the big favorites
Betting companies know that recreational players in baseball betting love to bet on favorites. As such, they take advantage of audience bias and adjust their lines accordingly. This means that popular teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers will always be overpriced because “average players” will bet on them regardless of whether their odds are -150, -180, or -200 in baseball betting.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found that regular season favorites at -150 or higher have won 9,040-5,264 (63%) since 2005. At first glance, this result seems impressive. However, because you always bet a large minus number, you actually end up with a minus number (-310.77 units).
Take advantage of Plus-Money’s weaknesses
To make money on soccer and basketball sports betting, bettors need to win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid the big favorites and consistently bet on plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170), they can win less than 50% and still end the year with positive winning units. When the underdogs lose, you only lose what you risked. But when they win, you can enjoy valuable plus-money payouts.
For example, since 2008, our top MLB betting picks at Sports Insights have produced 3,005-3,378 (47.1%) spread/moneyline wins. However, because we almost always bet on underrated plus-money dogs, that win rate translates to +202.7 won units. This means that if you had bet $100 on every top moneyline bet since 2008, you would have gained $20,270.
Betting against the public
For years, we have detailed the value of betting against public opinion. We like to bet against contrarian solutions because more often than not, the public is the loser. The average bettor bets based on his or her instincts. They always want to bet on favorites, home teams, popular brands, and star teams.
They are also victims of bias. If a team looked great in its last game, they will bet on it. If it looked terrible, they will underestimate it. By betting on the contrarian, we are able to take advantage of the public’s bias and benefit from artificially high numbers. An additional advantage is that we put ourselves on the side of the betting public. We all know that the house always wins.
Our Sports Insights MLB Contrarian games, which focus primarily on the dogs with less than 40% of the moneyline bets on the most wagered games of the night, have produced a score of 2239-2873 (43.8%) since 2007. Again, this is a losing result, but thanks to plus-money payouts, they have produced +193.3 win units.
Follow the movement of the contrarian line
Baseball isn’t just about taking plus dogs and blindly following a contrarian approach. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game (with professional bookmakers who have a long history of success). One of the best ways to find sharp action is to track reverse line movement (RLM), which is when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.
For example, let’s say the Cubs open -150 against the Brewers (+130). Chicago gets 75% of the moneyline bets, but you see the Cubs drop from -150 to -135, while the Brewers move from +130 to +115. Why did the bookies lower the line to give the public bettors betting on the Cubs a better number? Because there has been some sharp action on the Brewers. Despite Milwaukee receiving only 25% of the bets, the line has shifted in their favor.
Since 2005, MLB teams (both dogs and favorites) receiving less than 35% of moneyline bets with an RLM of at least 1 cent have won 4028-5123 (44%), +16.1 win units.
If you increase the RLM to 10 cents or more, the situation gets even better. A person betting $100 would have earned over $8,700 using this system since 2005.
Focus on the dogs in the division
Because MLB teams playing in divisional games play each other much more often, it causes them to know each other and levels the playing field, which inevitably benefits the dog. Since 2005, all dogs playing in divisional games (Red Sox vs. Yankees) have lost 72.1 units, while dogs playing in non-divisional games have lost as much as 645.7 units.
The performance of divisional dogs in baseball betting is even better when two additional filters are added: First, road teams (the public overestimates home field advantage, creating an overvaluation on the visitors), and second, high totals (8.5 or higher). Since more points are expected to be scored, this leads to more variance, which helps weaker players. Since 2005, this system has produced an amazing +71.2 units.
Know the weather
While most bets are placed on the moneyline, you can still find value in baseball betting totals. An important factor to consider before betting on totals is the weather, specifically the wind. Using Bet Labs, we’ve found that when the wind is blowing at 5 mph or more, betting under totals is 960-781-89 (55.1%), resulting in 117.6 win units and a 6.4% ROI.
When the wind blows, it can turn home runs into warning-track outs, in favor of the under. Conversely, when it’s windy, he can turn fly balls into homers and benefit reserve players. Since 2005, when the wind is blowing at 8 mph or more, the over is 1,174-1,045-125 (52.9%), winning 84.59 units for a 3.6% ROI.